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Weekly probability maps for future stock returns are accessible for premium members and updated every Monday.

The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio monthly newsletter for basic and premium members.

Strategy rules are accessible for basic and premium members – several basic strategies are open to everyone.

Recent Reports

Probability Map April 12

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

The current rally is accelerating, and several red flags are popping up in an overbought market.

This will probably lead to weakness within the next two weeks, and the key area to watch is the first strong support around the zero gamma / 20 dma level.

This area could very well hold through April and is more prone to break down in May. 

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 04 2021

The Meta Strategy portfolios are looking very well, with stock markets trading at all-time highs.

All fundamental indicators have moved further into the green zone, as the post-pandemic recovery is gathering steam under an accelerating immunization effort.

Most of this is priced into the stock market already, however, and we should expect the strong recovery rally to transition to a more moderate pace, interspersed by corrective consolidation periods.

The economy will have to prove itself, when the constant flow of stimulus lessens.

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Probability Map April 5

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated April 6, pre-market —

My main upside target area was reached last week and half of the derivatives position was closed at a healthy profit.

The S&P 500 has run up into positive gamma territory, which dampens volatility and makes a mean-reverting consolidation increasingly likely. 

Current market studies add up to a largely neutral picture, and the default expectation is a continuation of the current slow grind up with frequent pullbacks.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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Probability Map March 29

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

While market fragility still remains elevated, the current correction is slowly releasing some of the pressure stemming from speculative extremes, as it is rotating through different areas of the market.

The essential short-term message is that we have passed through the main window of increased vulnerability unscathed, and now have the seasonally strong month of April ahead of us, supported by a volatility regime that is shifting lower.

I am introducing a new section containing alternative strategies and special opportunities to the report, starting today with the “Vanna Nights” strategy.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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Probability Map March 22

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Several positive market studies tilt probabilities towards the scenario that we may get through next week’s window of weakness unscathed.

In case of further bullish momentum, I plan to take profits on my long positions fairly quickly.

In general, market fragility remains elevated, because the recent pullback has failed to reset signs of speculative excess and sentiment extremes.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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Probability Map March 15

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated March 18, pre-market —
— Updated March 16, pre-market —

Stimulus money is now arriving in bank accounts, and this influx may succeed to push the S&P 500 to significant new highs.

I will take this as a sign that a benevolent feedback loop may overcome the potential post-OpEx weakness.

If we should stall below 3960 this week instead, I will make the opposite assumption.

In general, market fragility remains elevated, because the recent pullback has failed to reset signs of speculative excess and sentiment extremes.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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Probability Map March 8

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated March 12, pre-market —
— Updated March 9, pre-market —

The ongoing corrective stock market move continues to take stair steps down. Last week, this pattern accelerated to the downside, while the amplitude of each swing increased — fast drops were followed by massive reversals.

A further normalization of excessive speculation and sentiment is the highest probability scenario going forward, as rising bond yields put increasing pressure on the stock market.

The passing of the US stimulus bill over the weekend may catapult the market into a blow-off rally, however, as more liquidity flushes into the market. I remain skeptical of that scenario, as a sell-the-news outcome looks to be equally likely, especially given the enthusiastic expectations.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 03 2021

There is a major position change in the Meta Strategy ETF Portfolios this month.

The stock market is currently working on normalizing speculation and sentiment extremes, which have been building up over the last months.

As this will not happen overnight, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the current correction continuing for some time yet. This would be quite normal in light of the 73% rally we have seen since the lows in March of 2020 (one of the strongest bear market recoveries in history).

The underlying market environment is healthy and sound, which points to a correction as being temporary, even if it should be steep.

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Probability Map March 1

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

A normalization of excessive speculation and sentiment is the highest probability scenario going forward, as a changing narrative (rising bond yields matter) puts increasing pressure on the stock market.

To be able to flush out the excess, we would need to see a prolonged correction or sideways consolidation over the next month or two.

As corrections often follow similar patterns, I lay out a detailed trading plan in this week’s report.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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Probability Map February 22

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated February 26, pre-market —
— Updated February 25, pre-market —
— Updated February 24, pre-market —
— Updated February 23, pre-market —

This week, I provide an overview of how traders can take advantage of liquidity flows in equity markets that are being driven by the price-insensitive buying and selling of options market makers.

As 35% of SPX gamma exposure expired on Friday, this opens a window of potential weakness beginning this week. I tilted my portfolio exposure short in anticipation of a higher probability for a break of key support.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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Probability Map February 15

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated February 17, pre-market —

Short-term probabilities are beginning to tilt in favor of negative returns, because extreme sentiment and excessive speculation continue to build up market fragility. This has been the case for several months now, but last week saw several new indicators flash a warning signal.

A strong correction in the beginning of 2021 is still my highest probability scenario.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

Probability Map February 8

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated February 11 (position change) —
— Updated February 10, pre-market —

Mixed signals are the defining feature of the current market. Despite a substantial pullback, signs of excessive speculation have not normalized in the slightest. Quite to the contrary, many sentiment indicators reached fresh extremes even while the market dropped, pointing to a continuation of the excesses that are endangering a long-term recovery.

On the other hand, momentum returned with a vengeance last week, pushing equity indices to fresh all-time highs — such strength carries a message that mustn’t be ignored.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 02 2021

Investor speculation is reaching manic proportions. The seductive lure of extraordinary gains, receiving full coverage in the main-stream media, emboldens investors to engage in dangerous practices.

Unfortunately, this phenomenon usually ends in a reaping, where many investors take enormous losses.

For us, this situation prepares us for what may happen in the coming months, as the stock market continues to build up into a state of increased fragility. More violent corrections and rallies, than the relative calm we have become used to over prior months, may very well play out.

Such an increase in volatility shouldn’t cause us sleepless nights, as the underlying market environment is healthy and sound. All of our strategy’s fundamental leading indicators have returned to signal a green light, which will likely revert to warn of danger well before we see the arrival of a new bear market.

Probability Map February 1

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated February 5, pre-market —
— Updated February 3, pre-market —
— Updated February 2, pre-market —

I spent the last weeks slowly and carefully rotating the model portfolio to a net short exposure. After last Wednesday’s close below key support, I further added to this short position, which has accumulated a healthy profit.

For the next couple of weeks, navigating the current pullback / correction will be my main priority. Fast drops from all-time-highs offer a range of great reward : risk opportunities that can play out very quickly.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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Probability Map January 25

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated January 28, pre-market —
— Updated January 27, pre-market —

On balance, my current probability assessment is still tilted to the short side over the next weeks, but the advantage is not very pronounced. We remain in a stand-off between strong momentum & breadth and excessive sentiment & speculative fever.

Even if current momentum leads to a continued push higher, any gains we may see are increasingly likely to be given back over the coming weeks, as the market becomes more and more fragile.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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Probability Map January 18

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated January 21, pre-market —

Last week played out exactly as anticipated, and on Friday the S&P 500 finally broke down from a sideways range.

This came right on schedule, after I switched the model portfolio to a net short exposure during the week.

The breakdown shows us the likely market direction for the coming week, supported by growing signs of excessive speculation, leading to a fragile state of the market.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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Vanna Nights — Creating an Overnight Trading Strategy (II)

All of the S&P 500’s recent returns occurred during the overnight sessions.

I will use my findings from part I of this post to go through the steps of constructing a simple, viable overnight trading strategy.

Please register for free in the “Subscribe“ section to read the second part of this article.

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Probability Map January 11

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated January 12, pre-market —

This week’s report is published early, as I see Monday morning as an opportune time to make adjustments that reduce the model portfolio’s market exposure to neutral.

Monthly option expiration on January 15th will open a window of potential weakness. The market is likely to attempt a breakout, when it becomes untethered from long gamma exposure.

Initially, an acceleration to the upside is as much a possibility as a break to the downside, but the current situation of an overstretched rally combined with excessive speculation make a downside move the path of least resistance.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 01 2021

While I do not think that the next correction will mark the end of the current bull market (because most long-term fundamental and technical indications are still overwhelmingly positive), I do expect intermediate problems to be a significant feature of 2021.

The rally off the March 2020 bottom could soon be reaching an initial limit.

In essence, medium-term weakness followed by a continuation of the long-term bull market trend is the most probable path.

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Probability Map January 4

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated January 7, pre-market —
— Updated January 5, pre-market —

The struggle of opposing market forces is beginning to shift, as positive turn-of-year flows will soon start to wane.

I expect that we will see a larger correction in the beginning of the year, but current momentum may surprise us with another push higher before that.

However, any gains we see over the next weeks are very likely to be given back over the coming months.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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Probability Map December 28

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated December 29, pre-market —

After an exciting Monday last week, the market remained quiet. Every dip was met by strong buyers, and a support area around SPX 3650 now provides a strong base.

From today onwards seasonal liquidity flows steadily increase into January, which bodes well for the historically strongest weeks in the calendar.

I continue to look towards mid-January to be the beginning of a critical danger period, where extreme sentiment may start to overcome positive breadth and fading supportive seasonality.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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Probability Map December 21

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated December 22, pre-market —

The end of 2020 combined with the beginning of January, will release a flow of structural liquidity into the market, that will make a significant decline difficult.

Meanwhile, we are in the middle of a battle between extreme momentum and extreme sentiment. These are conditions that frequently lead to any further shorter-term gains to be erased during a subsequent pullback.

Thus, we are looking for indications of an approaching tipping point, by analyzing weakening liquidity flows that will eventually exhaust themselves in the new year.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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Probability Map December 14

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated December 18, pre-market —
— Updated December 16, pre-market —

It was good to see the market trade, almost right away, in accordance with recent warning signs, which showed it was facing increased vulnerability.

My primary scenario is that momentum has been impressive enough, so that any weakness should remain temporary, and the uptrend should resume, supported by traditionally bullish year-end tendencies.

I react to the current pullback by going long opportunistically during the coming week’s potential window of weakness, as excessive sentiment normalizes.

We were able to book a quick profit in Gold last week.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

Probability Map December 7

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated December 9, pre-market —

The battle between strong breadth and excessive sentiment — the big counterpoints in the current market — is getting closer to a tipping point.

Several signs of exuberance have now reached worrisome levels, but the timing of a potential pullback is difficult to anticipate, as it goes against strongly bullish end-of-year tendencies, which may manage to neutralize the threat for some time yet.

Patience has paid off, as the S&P 500 finally filled our main long target area last week. We were able to take profits on a majority of our long position.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 12 2020

The US presidential election turned out to be the starting point for a powerful rally, making this November one of the strongest months in history and leading to a new all-time high for the S&P 500.

A slew of positive news hit the wires last month — first and foremost, the uplifting message that a highly effective Coronavirus vaccine will be available in the coming months.

Everyone has been waiting to hear that, and I’m confident that people will be able to endure several difficult months, as the timeline that ends this pandemic is much clearer now — a light is shining at the end of the tunnel.

Probability Map November 30th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Strong breadth versus sentiment:
These are the big counterpoints in the current market. Signs of exuberance are on the rise, but the key question remains; How long can that rise continue, and when will it flip?

Growing confidence is typical for a euphoric bull market, and strength underneath the hood lends long-term support.

The art now lies in striking the right balance in interpreting the data: When will growing sentiment likely cease to be supportive of rising prices, making the market fragile and prone to flushing out its excesses?

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium and long term.

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Probability Map November 23rd

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

A new probability dashboard makes the most important analysis results visible at a single glance.

Current moderate stock market weakness gives a good entry opportunity for my primary scenario: a year-end rally.

Caution is warranted, however, as a failure of such a scenario often leads to a large drop in equity prices.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium and long term.

Probability Map November 16th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report looks at how positive vaccine news may enable the market to look beyond the current catastrophic state of the pandemic – pricing in the likely state of the world six months from now.

A strong rally is slowly increasing short-term chances for a pullback. We decrease the model portfolio’s level of leverage with rising prices, taking excellent profits along the way.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map November 9th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report digs into the mechanical nature of last week’s relentless stock market rally. We try to fathom how long it may last and look at the chances of seeing a strong year-end rally.

After a successful retest of the correction bottom and reclaiming significant resistance levels we increased the model portfolio’s level of leverage.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 11 2020

The stock market rallied higher in the face of what many thought would be the worst possible US election outcome: no clear winner on election night combined with a high likelihood of split power between Senate & House. Instead of trying to conjure up an explanation of how the worst result is suddenly great in hindsight, I think that the real reason behind the unexpected rise are mechanical liquidity flows into stocks.

The S&P 500 is still stuck in a volatile correction, but the enthusiastic reaction after the election bodes well for a historically positive season – especially if we see clear, positive news on the vaccine front.

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Probability Map November 2nd

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

In today’s report: last week’s stock market rout analyzed through the lens of volatility, breadth, seasonality and more.

After breaking significant resistance levels we reduced the model portfolio’s level of leverage to reasses the situation.

US elections are front and center this week. Forecasts paint a clear picture in favor for Joe Biden, but the senate result will likely be more important for the stock market.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map October 26th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

In today’s report: a textbook technical setup coming out of the current correction in equities is supported by positive seasonality.

After closing and consolidating above the last significant resistance below the S&P 500 all-time-high, the model portfolio is now long near its maximum level of leverage.

We began to build high conviction long positions over the past month and continue to hold during the current pullback that was preceded by significant breadth & strength.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map October 19th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees increased short-term uncertainty after Friday’s Opex at the tail end of the current correction in equities.

After closing above the last significant resistance below the S&P 500 all-time-high early last week, the model portfolio is now long near its maximum level of leverage.

We began to build high conviction long positions over the past three weeks and continue to hold during a short-term pullback preceded by significant breadth & strength.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map October 12th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report calls the end of the current correction in equities.
After closing above the last significant resistance below the S&P 500 all-time-high, the portfolio is now going long at its maximum level of leverage.

We began to build high conviction long positions over the past three weeks and one further entry is planned on a short-term pullback under significant breadth & strength.

We book a large gain as we close our position in long Corn.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 10 2020

Just as the stock market is settling into behavior that looks more and more like a regular post-bear-market recovery period, the US presidential election is imminent and priced into volatility markets as a potential high risk event.

As a bull market environment is signaled by the systematic Meta Strategy, the baseline expectation for this correction is to stick to regular parameters and lead to new all-time-highs in due course.

Looking at the big picture my conclusion is: an exogenous shock bear market has ended in record time and we now see the fundamental picture slowly turn positive. We can wait for signs of a new regime change from the Meta Strategy model rather than try to predict highly uncertain medium- & long-term developments.

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Probability Map October 5th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees increased probabilities for an end of the current equity correction.
Stock market resilience in light of the exogenous shock event of President Trump’s Coronavirus infection is a very healthy sign.

We began to build high conviction long positions over the past two weeks and further entries are planned on continuing strength – leading to a leveraged long exposure for the portfolio.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map September 28th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees further increased probabilities in favor of an end of the current equity pullback.

We reached our main target range last week and began to add long positions. Further long entries are planned for this week – leading to a leveraged long exposure for the portfolio.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map September 21st

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees higher chances for an end of the current equity pullback. The market direction after Friday’s option expiration may be decisive.

Important levels have been reached and we now fine-tune our entry on the long side.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map September 14th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report looks closely at the current equity pullback which brings stocks back into play in a big way.

Important levels have been reached and we now fine-tune our entry on the long side.

Short volatility exposure is back on the table with an unusual opportunity in the VIX futures curve going into the US election.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map September 7th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report looks closely at the current equity pullback which brings stocks back into play in a big way.

The anticipated drop leads to gains on the short side and activates a new trading setup.
Short volatility exposure is back on the table after a long pause with an opportunity in the unusual VIX futures curve going into the US election.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 09 2020

The year 2020 will go down in history as one of the strangest ever – in markets as well as in real life.

While the economy is recovering from extremely depressed levels and is still facing severe headwinds in the ongoing pandemic, the stock market shoots up in the fastest recovery to new all-time-highs in US history.
Meanwhile we see data indicating increased risk because of excessive speculation and market anomalies that have surpassed even the records of the year 2000.
This has materialized last week in a very quick sell-off, that is likely to continue for a while longer.

Probability Map August 31st

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees unusual anomalies regarding equity volatility leading to rising risks over the short-term while good long-term prospects remain.

We book a large gain in long Corn.
The best opportunities can be found in alternative assets and securities for the moment.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

Probability Map August 24th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees strong possibilities for a change in market dynamic due to the roll off in gamma exposure. A common theme over the last weeks, studies show elevated risk over the short-term and good long-term prospects.
The best opportunities can be found in alternative assets and securities for the moment

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map August 17th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees an overextended stock market still hovering just below its all-time-highs – with elevated risk over the short-term and good long-term prospects.
The best opportunities can be found in alternative assets and securities for the moment

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map August 10th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report shows a continuing return to normality by establishing a long-term position in stocks, but still sees elevated risk over the short-term.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 08 2020

Dear subscriber,
the Meta Strategy indicators signaled the change to a bull market regime while the world is in turmoil all around us. This is quite normal due to the anticipatory nature of the stock market and fundamental economic improvement is lagging behind.

Our gold position had one of its best months in history (up 13,54%) – far surpassing the gains of the S&P 500…

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Probability Map August 3rd

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report shows that the short term outlook has turned negative while we are caught in an uneventful “Summer Box”.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map July 27th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report confirms a decisive turning point in the market and shows entries in a bull market trade setup.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Thoughts on the Market Environment, July 2020

My tactical asset allocation model, the Meta Strategy, signaled big changes in the stock market environment in recent weeks.
This is a big deal, because the current regime of the market influences all my investing and trading decisions.
We are now in a „make money regime“ opposed to the previous „preserve capital” environment.

Probability Map July 20th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report confirms a decisive turning point in the market and details specific bull market trade setups.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

Download The Meta Strategy eBook

The brand-new, free eBook „The Meta Strategy“.
All you need to know about my flagship systematic Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy – background, backtests and detailed analysis.
Click on the title to download for free!

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Probability Map July 13th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report identifies a decisive turning point in the market and introduces a new section detailing asymmetric trading opportunities.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map July 6th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 07 2020

Dear subscriber,
Uncertainty still reigns. The Meta Strategy is very close to flipping to a bull market regime and buy back into equities while the gulf between the economy and the stock market is as high at as it has ever been.
Our gold position had a stellar month far surpassing the gains of the S&P 500…

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Probability Map June 29th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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Probability Map June 22nd

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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Thoughts on the Market Environment, June 2020

We are dealing with an extraordinary situation – both in our lives and in the financial markets – and find ourselves in a state of limbo.
Will we really manage a return to new stock market highs in the face of an abysmal economy, a raging pandemic, riots and so on? Or will the March bear market return with full force and surprise complacent investors?

Probability Map June 15th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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Probability Map June 8th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 06 2020

Dear subscriber,
we are dealing with an extraordinary situation – both in our lives and in the financial markets.
Will we really manage a return to new stock market highs in the face of an abysmal economy, a raging pandemic, riots and so on? Or will the March bear market return with full force and surprise complacent investors?

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Download the Investment Blueprint eBook

A complete guide to develop your own individually tailored investment plan.
Newly revised and updated.
Read about investing going from basic concepts to sophisticated strategies and insightful ideas.
Click on the title to download for free!

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Probability Map June 1st

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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Probability Map May 25th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update This table maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short term (1 – 8 weeks), medium term (3 – 6 months) and long term (6 – 18 months). It is updated each Monday and whenever probability estimates…

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Short Term Strategy Rules

A rulebook for basic and premium subscribers detailing the short term trading set-ups that I include in my trading process.
Strategies: Buy the Gamma Dip; Retest of Low (after retracement in sharp bull market pullback) and more…

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Probability Map May 18th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update This table maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short term (1 – 8 weeks), medium term (3 – 6 months) and long term (6 – 18 months). It is updated each Monday and whenever probability estimates…

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Thoughts on the Market Environment, May 2020

A succinct summary of key insights from recent subscription newsletters. Thoughts on the market environment From a relentless march to new highs to an unprecedented crash and now a generational rally – during the first four months of the year the stock market certainly showed us everything it has got. In the face of high uncertainty, […]

Probability Map May 11th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update This table maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short term (1 – 8 weeks), medium term (3 – 6 months) and long term (6 – 18 months). It is updated each Monday and whenever probability estimates…

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 05 2020

The Meta Strategy ETF Portfoliomonthly issue #17, May 2020 Dear Subscriber, the systematic individual investor website has been revamped with lots of new content and a new weekly newsletter „The Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio“ aimed at active traders.  Please contact me directly, if you want to upgrade from your existing membership to the weekly newsletter, so I can offer you…

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Probability Map May 4th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update This table maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short term (1 – 8 weeks), medium term (3 – 6 months) and long term (6 – 18 months). It is updated each Monday and whenever probability estimates…

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Volatility Strategy Implementation & Rules

Here is how I implement Short Volatility Strategies in my portfolio in practice: UVXY Put Strategy: Using put options on a long volatility instrument, that constantly loses value, limits risk to the amount of premium paid, but consequently lowers the return: the put premium can be seen as a re-insurance paid to protect against catastrophic events unforeseen by…

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Does the drop in volatility speak for a coming euphoric stock market phase?

Volatility is an interesting measurement to judge the health of equity markets. As a mean-reverting price series it always returns to its average over time – it doesn’t increase indefinitely nor can it stay low forever. But it also has a tendency to cluster: high volatility is usually followed by more high volatility and low volatility […]

The Meta Strategy Rules – Indicators and ETF Portfolios

The Meta Strategy ETF Model Portfolios are built in a step-by step process, that is completely rules based. There is never any guessing exactly what to do when. All the different building blocks are interconnected and form a nuanced picture of the state and trajectory of current market conditions. Each single indicator can be adjusted…

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Trading Parabolic Moves (…after the fact)

Update January 2021 Please, check your risk exposure, when taking advantage of elevated option premia in parabolic movers. Margin requirements on naked short calls can skyrocket very quickly and risk is uncapped. While the probability of a significant loss at the end of the trade is low, the loss size can be devastating and the […]

Trend Following for Individual Investors – A Manageable Futures Strategy

A traditional long-only portfolio consisting of globally diversified asset classes can be greatly enhanced by a truly diversifying strategy, namely trend-following managed futures. We have over 40 years of real return data *,*** available from different CTAs running such strategies – there is even research testing the validity of the concept going back 800 years in […]

Volatility Strategies in Detail

Let´s dig deeper into the practical details of the volatility strategies I use in my portfolio. These are among the most active, short-term strategies I use at the moment. They also use concepts that are further off the beaten track than most mainstream investment strategies, which makes them more valuable, but also more difficult to […]