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Weekly probability maps for future stock returns are accessible for premium members and updated every Monday.

The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio monthly newsletter for basic and premium members.

Strategy rules are accessible for basic and premium members – several basic strategies are open to everyone.

Market commentary: A succinct summary recaps key insights from recent subscription newsletters.

Best blog content to easily find the articles you are interested in, my free ebooks and access to my favorite resources.

Recent Reports

The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 08 2020

Dear subscriber,
the Meta Strategy indicators signaled the change to a bull market regime while the world is in turmoil all around us. This is quite normal due to the anticipatory nature of the stock market and fundamental economic improvement is lagging behind.

Our gold position had one of its best months in history (up 13,54%) – far surpassing the gains of the S&P 500…

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Probability Map August 3rd

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report shows that the short term outlook has turned negative while we are caught in an uneventful “Summer Box”.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map July 27th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report confirms a decisive turning point in the market and shows entries in a bull market trade setup.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Thoughts on the Market Environment, July 2020

My tactical asset allocation model, the Meta Strategy, signaled big changes in the stock market environment in recent weeks.
This is a big deal, because the current regime of the market influences all my investing and trading decisions.
We are now in a „make money regime“ opposed to the previous „preserve capital” environment.

Probability Map July 20th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report confirms a decisive turning point in the market and details specific bull market trade setups.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

Download The Meta Strategy eBook

The brand-new, free eBook „The Meta Strategy“.
All you need to know about my flagship systematic Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy – background, backtests and detailed analysis.
Click on the title to download for free!

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Probability Map July 13th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report identifies a decisive turning point in the market and introduces a new section detailing asymmetric trading opportunities.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map July 6th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 07 2020

Dear subscriber,
Uncertainty still reigns. The Meta Strategy is very close to flipping to a bull market regime and buy back into equities while the gulf between the economy and the stock market is as high at as it has ever been.
Our gold position had a stellar month far surpassing the gains of the S&P 500…

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Probability Map June 29th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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Probability Map June 22nd

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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Thoughts on the Market Environment, June 2020

We are dealing with an extraordinary situation – both in our lives and in the financial markets – and find ourselves in a state of limbo.
Will we really manage a return to new stock market highs in the face of an abysmal economy, a raging pandemic, riots and so on? Or will the March bear market return with full force and surprise complacent investors?

Probability Map June 15th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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Probability Map June 8th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 06 2020

Dear subscriber,
we are dealing with an extraordinary situation – both in our lives and in the financial markets.
Will we really manage a return to new stock market highs in the face of an abysmal economy, a raging pandemic, riots and so on? Or will the March bear market return with full force and surprise complacent investors?

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Download the Investment Blueprint eBook

A complete guide to develop your own individually tailored investment plan.
Newly revised and updated.
Read about investing going from basic concepts to sophisticated strategies and insightful ideas.
Click on the title to download for free!

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Probability Map June 1st

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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Probability Map May 25th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update This table maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short term (1 – 8 weeks), medium term (3 – 6 months) and long term (6 – 18 months). It is updated each Monday and whenever probability estimates…

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Short Term Strategy Rules

A rulebook for basic and premium subscribers detailing the short term trading set-ups that I include in my trading process.
Strategies: Buy the Gamma Dip; Retest of Low (after retracement in sharp bull market pullback) and more…

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Probability Map May 18th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update This table maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short term (1 – 8 weeks), medium term (3 – 6 months) and long term (6 – 18 months). It is updated each Monday and whenever probability estimates…

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Thoughts on the Market Environment, May 2020

A succinct summary of key insights from recent subscription newsletters. Thoughts on the market environment From a relentless march to new highs to an unprecedented crash and now a generational rally – during the first four months of the year the stock market certainly showed us everything it has got. In the face of high uncertainty, […]

Probability Map May 11th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update This table maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short term (1 – 8 weeks), medium term (3 – 6 months) and long term (6 – 18 months). It is updated each Monday and whenever probability estimates…

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 05 2020

The Meta Strategy ETF Portfoliomonthly issue #17, May 2020 Dear Subscriber, the systematic individual investor website has been revamped with lots of new content and a new weekly newsletter „The Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio“ aimed at active traders.  Please contact me directly, if you want to upgrade from your existing membership to the weekly newsletter, so I can offer you…

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Probability Map May 4th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update This table maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short term (1 – 8 weeks), medium term (3 – 6 months) and long term (6 – 18 months). It is updated each Monday and whenever probability estimates…

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Volatility Strategy Implementation & Rules

Here is how I implement Short Volatility Strategies in my portfolio in practice: UVXY Put Strategy: Using put options on a long volatility instrument, that constantly loses value, limits risk to the amount of premium paid, but consequently lowers the return: the put premium can be seen as a re-insurance paid to protect against catastrophic events unforeseen by…

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Does the drop in volatility speak for a coming euphoric stock market phase?

Volatility is an interesting measurement to judge the health of equity markets. As a mean-reverting price series it always returns to its average over time – it doesn’t increase indefinitely nor can it stay low forever. But it also has a tendency to cluster: high volatility is usually followed by more high volatility and low volatility […]

The Meta Strategy Rules – Indicators and ETF Portfolios

The Meta Strategy ETF Model Portfolios are built in a step-by step process, that is completely rules based. There is never any guessing exactly what to do when. All the different building blocks are interconnected and form a nuanced picture of the state and trajectory of current market conditions. Each single indicator can be adjusted…

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Trading Parabolic Moves (…after the fact)

There is nothing like a story of extraordinary gains to play havoc with investor psychology. Especially when it is founded on asset price moves of a magnitude that could mean life changing levels of profit – if you had only participated in it. Such parabolic irrational exuberances, that drive prices and valuations to unsustainable extremes, happen […]

Dead Simple – The Opening Gap and other Intraday Patterns around the Market Opening

Before we look at some intraday trading strategies in detail, I have to admit I’m biased. I don’t believe in day-trading for several reasons: No basic edge: studies point to merely 5% of day-traders being consistently profitable. In contrast to long-term investing, where an unskilled advantage exists for everyone by participating in economic growth, trading is […]

Trend Following for Individual Investors – A Manageable Futures Strategy

A traditional long-only portfolio consisting of globally diversified asset classes can be greatly enhanced by a truly diversifying strategy, namely trend-following managed futures. We have over 40 years of real return data *,*** available from different CTAs running such strategies – there is even research testing the validity of the concept going back 800 years in […]

Volatility Strategies in Detail

Let´s dig deeper into the practical details of the volatility strategies I use in my portfolio. These are among the most active, short-term strategies I use at the moment. They also use concepts that are further off the beaten track than most mainstream investment strategies, which makes them more valuable, but also more difficult to […]