Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

– Positioning Update Tuesday –

Building the Big Picture Outlook for 2026

Part II) Historical Patterns

I consider two specific historical patterns as especially relevant for today’s stock market: a) a slingshot, V-shaped recovery from a sharp 20% correction and b) the tendency that long secular trends often change direction via the bursting of a huge bubble.

The 2025 slingshot recovery from a deep correction, ending in a double-digit positive year, points to a lasting uptrend.

Similar past continuation periods lasted 1-2 years from new, post-correction all-time highs.

Should the idea that we are in the process of blowing up a market bubble that marks the end of a secular bull market hold true, we should expect increasing volatility to disturb the calm rally of the past months.

Often multiple, sharp 10%+ corrections happen before the ultimate top, which makes 2026 look to be merely the beginning of a drawn-out bubble top to me – a year is simply not enough time for a broad topping process.