Archive

In this section you can browse my previous comments on market conditions and unlocked newsletters as well as other posts that I removed from the main feed to keep the blog as relevant and concise as possible.

Market Commentary & Other Archived Blog Posts

Probability Map February 15

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated February 17, pre-market —

Short-term probabilities are beginning to tilt in favor of negative returns, because extreme sentiment and excessive speculation continue to build up market fragility. This has been the case for several months now, but last week saw several new indicators flash a warning signal.

A strong correction in the beginning of 2021 is still my highest probability scenario.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 02 2021

Investor speculation is reaching manic proportions. The seductive lure of extraordinary gains, receiving full coverage in the main-stream media, emboldens investors to engage in dangerous practices.

Unfortunately, this phenomenon usually ends in a reaping, where many investors take enormous losses.

For us, this situation prepares us for what may happen in the coming months, as the stock market continues to build up into a state of increased fragility. More violent corrections and rallies, than the relative calm we have become used to over prior months, may very well play out.

Such an increase in volatility shouldn’t cause us sleepless nights, as the underlying market environment is healthy and sound. All of our strategy’s fundamental leading indicators have returned to signal a green light, which will likely revert to warn of danger well before we see the arrival of a new bear market.

Probability Map January 11

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated January 12, pre-market —

This week’s report is published early, as I see Monday morning as an opportune time to make adjustments that reduce the model portfolio’s market exposure to neutral.

Monthly option expiration on January 15th will open a window of potential weakness. The market is likely to attempt a breakout, when it becomes untethered from long gamma exposure.

Initially, an acceleration to the upside is as much a possibility as a break to the downside, but the current situation of an overstretched rally combined with excessive speculation make a downside move the path of least resistance.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

Probability Map December 14

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated December 18, pre-market —
— Updated December 16, pre-market —

It was good to see the market trade, almost right away, in accordance with recent warning signs, which showed it was facing increased vulnerability.

My primary scenario is that momentum has been impressive enough, so that any weakness should remain temporary, and the uptrend should resume, supported by traditionally bullish year-end tendencies.

I react to the current pullback by going long opportunistically during the coming week’s potential window of weakness, as excessive sentiment normalizes.

We were able to book a quick profit in Gold last week.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 12 2020

The US presidential election turned out to be the starting point for a powerful rally, making this November one of the strongest months in history and leading to a new all-time high for the S&P 500.

A slew of positive news hit the wires last month — first and foremost, the uplifting message that a highly effective Coronavirus vaccine will be available in the coming months.

Everyone has been waiting to hear that, and I’m confident that people will be able to endure several difficult months, as the timeline that ends this pandemic is much clearer now — a light is shining at the end of the tunnel.

Probability Map November 23rd

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

A new probability dashboard makes the most important analysis results visible at a single glance.

Current moderate stock market weakness gives a good entry opportunity for my primary scenario: a year-end rally.

Caution is warranted, however, as a failure of such a scenario often leads to a large drop in equity prices.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium and long term.

The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 09 2020

The year 2020 will go down in history as one of the strangest ever – in markets as well as in real life.

While the economy is recovering from extremely depressed levels and is still facing severe headwinds in the ongoing pandemic, the stock market shoots up in the fastest recovery to new all-time-highs in US history.
Meanwhile we see data indicating increased risk because of excessive speculation and market anomalies that have surpassed even the records of the year 2000.
This has materialized last week in a very quick sell-off, that is likely to continue for a while longer.

Probability Map August 31st

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees unusual anomalies regarding equity volatility leading to rising risks over the short-term while good long-term prospects remain.

We book a large gain in long Corn.
The best opportunities can be found in alternative assets and securities for the moment.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 08 2020 – free sample

Dear subscriber,
the Meta Strategy indicators signaled the change to a bull market regime while the world is in turmoil all around us. This is quite normal due to the anticipatory nature of the stock market and fundamental economic improvement is lagging behind.

Our gold position had one of its best months in history (up 13,54%) – far surpassing the gains of the S&P 500…

Thoughts on the Market Environment, July 2020

My tactical asset allocation model, the Meta Strategy, signaled big changes in the stock market environment in recent weeks.
This is a big deal, because the current regime of the market influences all my investing and trading decisions.
We are now in a „make money regime“ opposed to the previous „preserve capital” environment.

Probability Map July 20th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report confirms a decisive turning point in the market and details specific bull market trade setups.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

Thoughts on the Market Environment, June 2020

We are dealing with an extraordinary situation – both in our lives and in the financial markets – and find ourselves in a state of limbo.
Will we really manage a return to new stock market highs in the face of an abysmal economy, a raging pandemic, riots and so on? Or will the March bear market return with full force and surprise complacent investors?

Thoughts on the Market Environment, May 2020

A succinct summary of key insights from recent subscription newsletters. Thoughts on the market environment From a relentless march to new highs to an unprecedented crash and now a generational rally – during the first four months of the year the stock market certainly showed us everything it has got. In the face of high uncertainty, […]