In this section you can browse my previous comments on market conditions and unlocked newsletters as well as other posts that I removed from the main feed to keep the blog as relevant and concise as possible.
Market Commentary & Other Archived Blog Posts
Active Investment Strategies
This post details essential background information on currently active investment strategies.
These are implemented via ETFs in my monthly subscription newsletter:
Meta Strategy (since 2019)
Alternative ETF Relative Strength Rotation Strategy (since mid-2022)
Free registration required.
Probability Map November 1
Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update. — Wednesday: New Gamma Dip levels going into FOMC — From its October low, the S&P rallied 7,7% (which is close to the average yearly stock market gain) in an almost vertical line. The chance of a small, buyable pullback has risen, but my overall assessment is…
The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 08 2021
It seems like nothing can stop this liquidity-driven momentum rally, despite it being carried by fewer and fewer large cap stocks. Much like in the markets of 2013/14 or 2017, every dip is shallow and immediately bounces back to new highs. However, many underlying issues remain unresolved, and there is a steadily increasing possibility that…
Probability Map February 15
Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update. — Updated February 17, pre-market — Short-term probabilities are beginning to tilt in favor of negative returns, because extreme sentiment and excessive speculation continue to build up market fragility. This has been the case for several months now, but last week saw several new indicators flash a…
The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 02 2021
Investor speculation is reaching manic proportions. The seductive lure of extraordinary gains, receiving full coverage in the main-stream media, emboldens investors to engage in dangerous practices. Unfortunately, this phenomenon usually ends in a reaping, where many investors take enormous losses. For us, this situation prepares us for what may happen in the coming months, as…
Probability Map January 11
Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update. — Updated January 12, pre-market — This week’s report is published early, as I see Monday morning as an opportune time to make adjustments that reduce the model portfolio’s market exposure to neutral. Monthly option expiration on January 15th will open a window of potential weakness. The…
Probability Map December 14
Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update. — Updated December 18, pre-market — — Updated December 16, pre-market — It was good to see the market trade, almost right away, in accordance with recent warning signs, which showed it was facing increased vulnerability. My primary scenario is that momentum has been impressive enough, so…
The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 12 2020
The US presidential election turned out to be the starting point for a powerful rally, making this November one of the strongest months in history and leading to a new all-time high for the S&P 500. A slew of positive news hit the wires last month — first and foremost, the uplifting message that a…
Probability Map November 23rd
Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update. A new probability dashboard makes the most important analysis results visible at a single glance. Current moderate stock market weakness gives a good entry opportunity for my primary scenario: a year-end rally. Caution is warranted, however, as a failure of such a scenario often leads to a…
The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 09 2020
The year 2020 will go down in history as one of the strangest ever – in markets as well as in real life. While the economy is recovering from extremely depressed levels and is still facing severe headwinds in the ongoing pandemic, the stock market shoots up in the fastest recovery to new all-time-highs in…
Probability Map August 31st
Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update. Today’s report sees unusual anomalies regarding equity volatility leading to rising risks over the short-term while good long-term prospects remain. We book a large gain in long Corn. The best opportunities can be found in alternative assets and securities for the moment. As usual I map my…
The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 08 2020 – free sample
Dear subscriber, the Meta Strategy indicators signaled the change to a bull market regime while the world is in turmoil all around us. This is quite normal due to the anticipatory nature of the stock market and fundamental economic improvement is lagging behind. Our gold position had one of its best months in history (up…
Thoughts on the Market Environment, July 2020
My tactical asset allocation model, the Meta Strategy, signaled big changes in the stock market environment in recent weeks. This is a big deal, because the current regime of the market influences all my investing and trading decisions. We are now in a „make money regime“ opposed to the previous „preserve capital” environment.
Probability Map July 20th
Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update. Today’s report confirms a decisive turning point in the market and details specific bull market trade setups. As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.
Thoughts on the Market Environment, June 2020
We are dealing with an extraordinary situation – both in our lives and in the financial markets – and find ourselves in a state of limbo. Will we really manage a return to new stock market highs in the face of an abysmal economy, a raging pandemic, riots and so on? Or will the March…
Thoughts on the Market Environment, May 2020
A succinct summary of key insights from recent subscription newsletters. Thoughts on the market environment From a relentless march to new highs to an unprecedented crash and now a generational rally – during the first four months of the year the stock market certainly showed us everything it has got. In the face of high uncertainty,…