Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
— Updated February 17, pre-market —
Short-term probabilities are beginning to tilt in favor of negative returns, because extreme sentiment and excessive speculation continue to build up market fragility. This has been the case for several months now, but last week saw several new indicators flash a warning signal.
A strong correction in the beginning of 2021 is still my highest probability scenario.
As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.