My Investment Blueprint

1 Introduction: In nine chapters I have compiled a guide that I use to structure my own investment approach – it comes from an individual investor´s perspective and experience. I put together a rulebook for strategic investing to serve as a guideline to create and evolve a written investment plan to manage my own money….

There ain´t no Secret

There is no secret trading or investment strategy, that will beat all others.   There are many ideas that work and they all work within very similar parameters – for example (average data from my backtests, books, articles, academic papers etc.): Trend following strategies  Whether you use moving averages, breakouts, RSI, Bollinger Bands etc., they…

A Barbell Portfolio Strategy

with a realtime review of portfolio performance during the recent market pullback. I want to take a look at some of my core portfolio strategies from a fresh angle. The basic principles discussed are easily transferable to other types of portfolios. A key portfolio feature, I strive for, is an adaptive combination of strategies with…

Isn´t it obvious? Switch from Bitcoin to Uranium.

How to constructively integrate speculative ideas in your portfolio. After making several thousand percent on your money in cryptocurrencies, the one thought on your mind is: „How can I do that again?“ Wild feelings are running amok, but recent signs of a bitcoin top may suggest looking elsewhere for crazily volatile speculation. Bitcoin daily price January…

Your Entry may be less important than you think

Or why choosing the right time horizon is of essential importance for the validity of a trading strategy. Many short-term traders tend to show an unhealthy obsession trying to optimize trade entries. Long-term investors, on the other hand, often enter in an arbitrary fashion and could improve results by using broad entry criteria. My theory:…

How much Time to Spend Actively Investing and Trading

One of my best trades in recent years has been to define a conscious time allocation for investing – specifically deciding how much time I should actively spend on trading and investment decisions. It has always been one of the hardest things for me to balance staying in tune with the markets, while keeping enough…

Trend Following for Individual Investors – A Manageable Futures Strategy

A traditional long-only portfolio consisting of globally diversified asset classes can be greatly enhanced by a truly diversifying strategy, namely trend-following managed futures. We have over 40 years of real return data *,*** available from different CTAs running such strategies – there is even research testing the validity of the concept going back 800 years in…

The Yin and Yang of Financial Markets

It´s hard to strive for superior investment returns – many say it´s futile, because markets are too efficient. While researching for ways to gain an edge and to exploit systematic inefficiencies in the market, I came across the same pair of principle forces in different forms again and again. Mean Reversion and Momentum These pervasive…

Bear Market Preparation

It sure feels good when the value of your portfolio is rising on an almost daily basis. But, when virtually all assets are going up, that achievement isn´t exactly magic. A rising tide lifts all boats, as the saying goes, and it will pay off in the long run to keep in mind how we…

Are Cryptocurrencies on a similar path as the Internet in 1999?

Opinions on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies usually are very binary: cryptocurrencies are about to take over the world and the sky is the limit for valuations (sometimes with a caveat about nonsensical ICOs) cryptocurrencies are a fad and what we are seeing is the greatest bubble since internet stocks in the late 1990s Often smarter commentators…