Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
— Wednesday: New Gamma Dip levels going into FOMC —
From its October low, the S&P rallied 7,7% (which is close to the average yearly stock market gain) in an almost vertical line.
The chance of a small, buyable pullback has risen, but my overall assessment is largely unchanged and I will use the current situation to take a little detour into portfolio construction in this post.
As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.