Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Time for a Pause?

With the S&P 500 relentlessly grinding up day after day, the question on every trader’s mind is: How long can this continue?

However, a quiet holiday period is likely, because investors are not just going to stop taking time off. That alone will put probabilities squarely in favor of those Vanna and Charm flows to do most of the gentle lifting over Christmas.

That leaves an open question: Just when are we going to see a consequential sell-off larger than 5%?

Polling the wisdom of an informed crowd yields a nuanced, probabilistic outlook.