Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Deterioration into Capitulation?

The stock market decline has reached a state of downside exhaustion that is beginning to tilt the balance towards an opportunity on the long side.

Using capitulation signals for entries, however, is fraught with danger: It’s definitely not easy money!

Often the recovery period after a bottom or a second leg down presents safer entries.

Rising geopolitical uncertainty is continually priced into all risk assets and I don’t see my edge in trying to predict where this will go – instead, I concentrate on technicals and market structure in my search for clues.

In conclusion: It’s not quite a “hold your nose and buy with both fists” situation yet, but “dipping a toe in the water” promises a decent probability for success.