Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Red Flags Raised

A Vix futures term structure red alert persisted all week, while the S&P 500 closed below its consolidation box of the last two months.

So far, there is a balance of fears, which could unravel either way as options expire in a big quarterly OpEx next Friday:

a) The danger that downside momentum finally manages to pick up for an exhaustion spike lower is real.

b) Upside FOMO is equally strong.

The resulting erratic, volatile, sideways chop is one of the hardest environments to trade.

Looking at the weight of the evidence on both sides of the ledger shows a bull vs bear stalemate that is building up immense pressure in opposite directions underneath the surface – any break is likely to be violent.

Over the medium to long term the bull case still carries more weight.