Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Déjà-Vu, All Over Again?

Just as rising bond yields, due to the U.S. administration’s pivot to renewed fiscal expansion, became the center of attention, destructive tariff policies are suddenly back on the agenda causing a stock market pullback.

However, equities are much more inclined to call the president’s bluff and ignore his blustering regarding tariffs this time around, even if markets are still vulnerable to aftershocks following a prolonged high-volatility regime.

While a 2016-type double dip remains possible, my favored scenario is a solid, confirmed higher low marking the end of a significant pullback.

After being out of synch for most of 2025, probability assessments across all time frames are beginning to align tentatively as most data-driven signals are shifting positive.