Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Bottoming Attempt?

The S&P 500 has fallen by 8% without a single multi-day bounce – two major attempts were quickly sold and Friday marks the third try.

Will it be more successful?

In nearly every instance the S&P 500 retraces 50-62% of a straight drop from an all-time high, which could be starting now, but also from an even lower point.

After that rally, I am looking for a higher low combined with a substantially lower Vix high to indicate the beginning of a bull-market rally into the summer.

This may very well occur over the next weeks as spring seasonality is about to turn positive and U.S. equities are likely to follow international strength.

As scary as deep pullbacks are, they are a major opportunity the majority of the time when looking at the bigger picture.