Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Back in the Doldrums

After initial green shoots appeared on our screens last week, the S&P 500 now looks to be heading back down to retest its correction low.

Several key market studies were flagging 2-4 weeks of difficult, volatile market conditions (with many pointing to a high probability for a recovery 2-3 months out) and that is where we are stuck now.

Pro-recovery data beats arguments for a much deeper decline for the moment.

A potential “sell the rumor, buy the news” setup around tariffs is consistent with several current indications.

However, the stock market remains difficult and vulnerable to further declines, should extreme uncertainty continue to persist and trade wars escalate.