Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Flourishing Fundamentals – Skittish Stocks

We continue to move from a great environment with aligned forecasts across different time horizons to a much weaker opportunity set.

The year is already shaping up to be a more challenging trading environment than the last, as worrying technical data is sending increasing warning signals.

In contrast, my systematic market model has made a major, positive shift as its leading economic indicators have jumped to a green light this month with several areas of economic concern improving simultaneously.

This is one of several contradictory signals defining the current market, which makes data-driven positioning much more difficult – the edge is declining.

However, if I where to fall back on one basic rule, it is this one: When stocks struggle while the economy improves, it is rarely a cause for lasting concern.