Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

– Positioning Update Monday/Tuesday –

Alas, more of the same…

At the beginning of a new month an uncertain setup in the market remains unchanged.

Despite a feeble effort to escape to the upside early last week, the S&P 500 is kept stuck right in the middle of a consolidation box by geopolitical tension.

Well-hedged, widely anticipated geopolitical escalation in the Middle East now is most likely to be a “sell the rumor, buy the news” event that could break the stock-market stalemate to the upside after a brief spike in volatility.

The reason is that timing uncertainty around the beginning of a new war is dissipating, hedges can soon be closed, and volatility compression after a spike leads to an accelerated positive feedback loop for stocks.