Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Hold It … Hold It …

There has been a clear and strong return pattern before midterm elections in recent years: A steep drawdown into mid-October followed by a strong rally to the election date, often with further upside beyond.

I don’t actually expect anything too extreme, because new all-time highs after a prolonged consolidation period have re-confirmed the current momentum regime – typical midterm weakness has been pulled forward this year.

Holding a large cash reserve based on seasonality may turn out to be much ado about nothing, but there is no need to be a hero – sometimes it’s just about avoiding dumb things.