Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Disaster Imminent?

Fear-mongering has reached a peak as the new FED chair takes the podium to elaborate about hikes – on the paths around Jackson Hole.

Everyone expects September to spell imminent disaster.

Yes, the negative seasonal pattern is there and it’s uncommonly clear before midterm elections, but isn’t it all a bit much?

Zooming out to include other data than fickle seasonality shows that it’s all quite positive in aggregate.