Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Swoon Season.

Despite quite a few market studies that pointed to a different outcome for this September, seasonal weakness is playing out as usual.

The interesting part about it is this year’s widespread anticipation of weakness and accordingly a reduction in stock market exposure and increased short positioning in advance, which tends to reduce (or reverse) the actual event – but not so this time around.

Sometimes the obvious base case simply prevails, but we are now nearing a major confluence of support in price and time.