Probability Map October 3

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Update Tuesday – Target Level Change

What Now?

Things are getting murkier, as messages from new data are mixed.

It’s time to lock in profits from our remaining short position, while keeping options open for the near future.

Bottom picking is difficult, especially as long as an overall downtrend is firmly in place, and the big macro picture points to a distinct possibility of significantly lower lows ahead before this bear market is over.

As a vast majority of traders seems to be highly convinced that this is already a certainty, a reset of negative sentiment, and with it positioning, looks to be the more likely immediate path.

In the current conditions a small catalyst can easily trigger a strong rally at any time.

Times like this, when views over different time frames cease to align in a volatile, fragile environment, are periods to be very careful.

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