Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Volatility Sends a Warning

After retesting the June low, we are still missing another ingredient of the second-leg-down scenario: The capitulation sell-off that will entice long-term buy-and-hold investors to finally throw in the towel.

As long as the FED’s trajectory remains as it is, capitulation is likely to occur, because the indications for a deep recession in 2023 increase steadily.

However, chances are good for a period of stabilization first, which is reflected in the probability map’s neutral assessment for the last part of this year.