Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Any big event that is perceived to carry large risks, paired with high uncertainty about the outcome, also presents a great opportunity, which unfolds in patterns that are often quite predictable.
With defined maximum risk, I don’t consider it reckless to buy into a panic spike to the downside, while allowing for a flexible price path that is driven by randomly unfolding events.
For the coming week or two a positive feedback loop provides structural market support, as falling volatility and passing time push the market up into a large quarterly OpEx in March.
The biggest window for potential weakness will begin mid-March going into an OpEx week and a major FOMC meeting.
We are likely to see strong setbacks on the way up.