Probability Map March 7

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated targets tables Wednesday —

— Update Monday: Target for position reduction adjusted for market open —

Risk-Off Dominates

While the S&P 500 showed strong resilience last week, risk-off behavior continues to dominate across assets.

All asset classes are now pricing in highly uncertain knock-on effects of the worsening conflict and stricter-than-expected sanctions against Russia for the world financial system, energy markets and agricultural commodities. In oil, wheat, gold, bonds, European equities, and others this has already led to large panic spikes, which could exacerbate problems down the line.

It is an overall perilous situation, but because major shifts are already anticipated by investors my expectation is to see short-term mean-reversion from current price extremes (falling oil, wheat, etc. and rising stocks), followed by more volatility as the trajectory and unexpected consequences of how these shifts actually play out become clearer over time.

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