Probability Map February 21

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Thursday Update —

Peak FED — Peak Inflation — Peak Geopolitics

The stock market doesn’t really care anymore. These negative factors have largely been disseminated by the volatile market action since the beginning of the year.

In the meantime, dark pool data shows aggressive smart-money buying activity.

All of this speaks to the distinct possibility that stocks are currently building a second, final bottom in this correction. While peak volume, fear and capitulation were visible in late January, the market is now digesting the remaining geopolitical and central bank policy uncertainty much more quietly.

Should Russia invade Ukraine we may still see a final panic spike to the downside over the very short-term. But I would expect this to reverse very quickly and be a great buying opportunity.

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