Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

– Wednesday Positioning Update –

An Optimal Macro Environment?

A consolidation period in stocks is more likely to play out after a continued summer advance rather than over the next three months.

My main scenario of a slow summer rally remains on track.

Empirically the current macro environment looks to be optimal for a continued stock market rally: Consistent expectation of lower interest rates combined with the repeated delay of actual cuts has coincided with an exceptional momentum run in equities since late 2023.

Higher for Longer is positive rather than negative, just as long as the expectation of imminent rate cuts persists – like a carrot on a stick in front of the donkey’s nose.