We are enjoying quite an exceptional momentum run in the stock market: The vast majority of small dips is being bought and after sharper pullbacks all-time highs are reclaimed very swiftly.

This does wonders for our concentrated stock portfolios, but in return also encourages excessive investor behavior.

In the broader market longer consolidation periods tend to occur when an advance runs out of fresh buyers.

However, a range of factors (momentum, election year seasonality, and positioning) hint that a correction is more likely to play out after a continued summer advance rather than over the next three months.