Hawkish monetary policy combined with a confluence of several fundamental warning signals tilts probabilities strongly in favor of a deep recession, and with it a recessionary bear market, which usually leads to a drawdown in stocks between 30% – 50% over many months.

If there will be a recession, but we are not in one yet that sets up two major opportunities over the medium term.

a) The final selloff

b) The start of the next bull market

These opportunities can be found in the commonalities of historical bear markets despite a wide range of possible outcomes.