Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Is the Bottom In?
Short answer: a temporary, tradable bottom is probably in, but chances are that the low is still to come.
An entire month of heightened volatility and the VIX futures term structure in backwardation has set up a coiled spring of volatility in nervous anticipation of an important double event: the FOMC meeting and midterm elections.
The majority of outcomes for these events are likely to provide the catalyst for a volatility-crush rally in November.
This in turn has the potential to trigger a wave of buying from active investors into year-end.
They currently have a very low exposure to equities and their big risk is to miss out on the upside.