Probability Map August 15

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Relentless Rally

The stock market advance continues towards its long-term downtrend.

I turn to the big question on everyone’s mind today: How can we distinguish whether what we see is still a bear-market rally, or whether the difficult FED goal of a “soft landing” can be achieved and lead straight to a new bull market?

We can never be certain about the future path, but we can observe how different data points shift probabilities and position ourselves accordingly.

Current data still points to a bear-market rally setup.

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