Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

The boring part of a bear market

Is it still a bear-market rally, if the market doesn’t … rally?

Lacking any kind of decisive directional move, it is useful to look at the length of time the S&P spends above its current bear market low.

Extremely pessimistic sentiment is slowly beginning to normalize, but it still has plenty of room to go, until bearish investors are lulled into complacency.

Meanwhile, fundamental data continues to quickly deteriorate, and the decisive phase of this bear market is still to come.