Probability Map July 11

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Slow and Steady

Three steps forward, two and a half steps back — that’s what a classic bear-market rally looks like.

Rather than seeing a deep, recessionary bear market as the only path, I prefer to keep an open mind for a wide variation of possible outcomes in the current, unpredictable situation.

On the next leg down, I will monitor closely in which direction the probabilities between our three main scenarios are shifting.

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