Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Update, Thursday August 19 pre-market

Too good to last? …Or a momentum market that extends to become the strongest trend in 100 years? …

We are now entering a vulnerable period around monthly options expiration. In the past months, while not leading to an extended correction, this time period has always coincided with the largest pullbacks.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.