Probability Map August 9

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

In typical August fashion, the activity in financial markets is taking a break, as investors and traders are on holiday.

This price lethargy (rather than action) dulls the senses, and fewer and fewer participants expect any serious problems. However, there are plenty of examples where such low-liquidity summer complacency has led to sudden, extended price moves.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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