Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

A handful of signs lead me to believe that the seismic FED tremor two weeks ago may portend further trouble ahead.

Declining market breadth and a slowdown of central bank liquidity are the main factors that may increasingly matter, if the relatively few stocks that hold the market up start to stumble.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.