Probability Map June 21

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Tuesday Update: Short entry targets were reached.

The market’s reaction to a surprisingly hawkish tone in the recent FED meeting shows just how sensitive all asset classes are to changes in liquidity conditions. “Do not fight the FED.”

Friday’s big quarterly OpEx finally managed to dislodge the stock market, and prices fell below key support levels.

The picture has changed significantly: a feature of a market pinned by high levels of gamma exposure is that, when the ball finally starts rolling, it can quickly turn into an avalanche.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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