Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Several positive market studies tilt probabilities towards the scenario that we may get through next week’s window of weakness unscathed.

In case of further bullish momentum, I plan to take profits on my long positions fairly quickly.

In general, market fragility remains elevated, because the recent pullback has failed to reset signs of speculative excess and sentiment extremes.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.