Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated March 18, pre-market —
— Updated March 16, pre-market —

Stimulus money is now arriving in bank accounts, and this influx may succeed to push the S&P 500 to significant new highs.

I will take this as a sign that a benevolent feedback loop may overcome the potential post-OpEx weakness.

If we should stall below 3960 this week instead, I will make the opposite assumption.

In general, market fragility remains elevated, because the recent pullback has failed to reset signs of speculative excess and sentiment extremes.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.