Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated January 28, pre-market —
— Updated January 27, pre-market —

On balance, my current probability assessment is still tilted to the short side over the next weeks, but the advantage is not very pronounced. We remain in a stand-off between strong momentum & breadth and excessive sentiment & speculative fever.

Even if current momentum leads to a continued push higher, any gains we may see are increasingly likely to be given back over the coming weeks, as the market becomes more and more fragile.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.