Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated January 21, pre-market —

Last week played out exactly as anticipated, and on Friday the S&P 500 finally broke down from a sideways range.

This came right on schedule, after I switched the model portfolio to a net short exposure during the week.

The breakdown shows us the likely market direction for the coming week, supported by growing signs of excessive speculation, leading to a fragile state of the market.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.