Before we look at some intraday strategies in detail, I have to admit I’m biased. I don’t believe in day-trading for several reasons: No basic edge: studies point to merely 5% of day-traders being consistently profitable. In contrast to long-term investing, where a „dumb“ edge exists in participating in economic growth, trading is a Zero Sum…
Category: implementation
Isn´t it obvious? Switch from Bitcoin to Uranium.
How to constructively integrate speculative ideas in your portfolio. After making several thousand percent on your money in cryptocurrencies, the one thought on your mind is: „How can I do that again?“ Wild feelings are running amok, but recent signs of a bitcoin top may suggest looking elsewhere for crazily volatile speculation. Bitcoin daily price January…
Trend Following for Individual Investors – A Manageable Futures Strategy
A traditional long-only portfolio consisting of globally diversified asset classes can be greatly enhanced by a truly diversifying strategy, namely trend-following managed futures. We have over 40 years of real return data *,*** available from different CTAs running such strategies – there is even research testing the validity of the concept going back 800 years in…
Bear Market Preparation
It sure feels good when the value of your portfolio is rising on an almost daily basis. But, when virtually all assets are going up, that achievement isn´t exactly magic. A rising tide lifts all boats, as the saying goes, and it will pay off in the long run to keep in mind how we…
Are Cryptocurrencies on a similar path as the Internet in 1999?
Opinions on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies usually are very binary: cryptocurrencies are about to take over the world and the sky is the limit for valuations (sometimes with a caveat about nonsensical ICOs) cryptocurrencies are a fad and what we are seeing is the greatest bubble since internet stocks in the late 1990s Often smarter commentators…
Volatility ETF Trading Strategy – A Case Study of Recent Volatility Spikes
When VIX traded at all time lows in July 2017 volatility became a subject that was hard to avoid even in the mainstream media. Systematically trading volatility ETP and their options has evolved to be a cornerstone of my portfolio allocation. It is the most short term and most aggressive strategy in my portfolio – based…
Volatility Strategies in Detail
Let´s put some meat on the bone and dig deeper into the practical details of the volatility strategies I use in my portfolio. These are among the most active, short term strategies I use at the moment. They also use concepts that are more off the beaten path, which makes them more valuable, but also…
Adaptive Global Asset Allocation Portfolio in Detail
It´s time to dig a bit deeper into the current asset allocation of my portfolio. You can read more here about my process of structuring the portfolio in general and how I think about adapting it to different market conditions. Let´s start with the most important foundation of my portfolio: a global asset allocation…
9 Writing down a plan
Finally all these elements need to be written down in a plan that is clear and easy to understand with rules that we can follow consistently. The real time performance of the portfolio, along with the process of running it, need to be recorded and analyzed in detail. Through ongoing research and by analyzing live…
