Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Midterm Dump > Midterm Pump

With its first rate hike since 2023, last Wednesday’s FOMC introduced fresh volatility to the stock market.

However, the signal of actual importance is the speed of the hike cycle.

The FED, so far, is signaling a slow cycle, which is constructive for stocks.

A hawkish FED paired with Septemberphobia has pushed sentiment and positioning significantly lower, which sets up a nice wall of worry for the next rally to climb.

The big question for the short term remains: How much of a midterm dump, if any, will we see before an expected midterm pump right into the election?