Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

– Tuesday Positioning Update –

Summer Rally Time?

I think it is time to dust off good, old seasonality and elevate it back to its place as a major influence in my edge stacking process.

In the beginning of the year, seasonality became overshadowed by major events, but these influences are waning in power.

Seasonal flows can easily become the main driver in such circumstances.

Already in the second half of June, this led to the alignment of erratic stock market moves with typical seasonality.

During the June Swoon heavy rotation and end-of-quarter rebalancing often lead to chop and minor weakness.

The interesting part, however, begins right now: The beginning of July is the best two-week period of the year.

Specifically, the last 3 trading days of June until the 9th trading day of July have been designated as the strong Mid-year (or Summer) Rally.