Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

How much does overwhelming consensus matter?

There is wide-spread consensus about the most probable future path for stocks and a majority of traders anticipate a weak September to October period, followed by a rally into year end.

Does such consensus lead to lower chances for the event to occur?

Or will a positive feedback loop make it even more likely for a powerful year-end rally to play out in 2024?

I have a convincing hypothesis that the coming period of strength is rooted in the structure of supply and demand flows in the market.

To a large degree these structural flows happen in any case. They are independent of investor’s consensus expectations, election results, or most other factors.