Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

– Positioning Update Wednesday –

OpEx Déjà Vu

A steep sell-off into monthly options expiration is a pattern we have seen so often that the term “window of potential weakness” points to a distinct, two-fold edge in trading the S&P 500.

Because of the mechanics of options expiration, price momentum is likely to last into OpEx and the probability to see a short-term bottom rises distinctly just after options expire.

A continued period of choppy price action fits well within the scenario of a temporary consolidation period that is likely to last until strength may regain the upper hand come August.