Despite running a long-term strategy that is specifically designed to avoid short-termism, I suspect that the question preying on many investors’ minds is:

Is the current stock market pullback over, or is there worse to come?

The S&P 500 currently sits at an interesting probabilistic crossroads where it either continues on to new all-time highs or falls back to its recent pullback lows.

Analyzing similar historical patterns shows that these opposing outcomes are by far the most likely scenarios, favoring a re-test of the lows, which happens about 70% of the time.

Beyond the short-term pullback pattern the big picture is much clearer and remains essentially unchanged: An exceptionally strong momentum impulse should have a positive impact throughout 2024 and pullbacks are a buying opportunity, unless systematic warning signals trigger.