Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Is This Front Running?

An exceptionally strong rally to post-correction targets implies to me that the year-end rally has likely been pulled forward to some degree and that the return prospects for the remainder of 2023 are more muted.

Even though this outlier rally went in our favor, a top decile return over a six-week period was, by definition, unlikely to happen.

This leads me to discuss how a probabilistic way of thinking is an essential tool to help stay on top off the trading game by reflecting on our inherent hindsight bias and separating luck from skill.