Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
– Positioning Update Wednesday –
The S&P500 has ended up exactly where it started last week and is stalling below an area of heavy overhead resistance. This is typical for a market that was pinned into monthly options expiration last Friday.
Because the positive shift in sentiment and positioning is only just beginning, I see a decently high probability that supportive technicals paired with flows will continue to drive the market up over the next months. Returning confidence after a successfully endured crisis can create a powerful, positive feedback loop.
Depending on the trajectory of the economy, we may be facing a significant correction come summer or fall. I’m looking for a tell-tale volatility up / market up dynamic (a blow-off top) to occur before the next leg down.