Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Happy New Year

Let’s have a look at the main ideas around 2023 that are currently flooding my inbox:

Inflation
Nobody is able to predict it, but everyone has an opinion.

Recession
Yes, says the most consensus recession call ever.

The Stock Market 
The bullish view sees stocks closing decisively higher in 2023.
It tends to ignore the intra-year path that gets us there, and that’s where the bearish consensus lies: New stock market lows in the first half of 2023 as a global recession hits.

I don’t see any reason why both the bullish and the bearish view can’t come true – their difference is mainly one of time horizons.