Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
– Wednesday Update: New trade –
Technicals and Fundamentals Diverge
We are now at a point in the relief rally where we see an increasing number of quantitative studies based on momentum, trend, and breadth show convincing positive return probabilities.
But, because the fundamental bear case remains exceptionally strong, I currently overweight the fundamental evidence until a regime change is indicated.
My belief is that this time is not different and a highly likely recession will have a strong impact.
Something serious will need to “break” in the economy, before the FED is forced to actually begin lowering interest rates.
This will most likely be reflected negatively in the path of the stock market.