Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

A Confluence of Time and Price

A compelling opportunity on the short side is approaching.

The key idea, that a V-shaped bear-market bottom a la 2020 is very unlikely, has been cemented further by Friday’s strong unemployment numbers, which make the necessary dovish FED pivot almost impossible due to its dual mandate.

The current confluence

A look at recent OpEx cycles shows consistent weakness in the 5 – 10 trading days before monthly options expire.

This often happened in combination with a consolidation period in the beginning of the month that fails to overcome a significant resistance area.