Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Update Tuesday; Leading economic indicators have triggered a yellow recession warning in July —

Bull vs Bear

The nascent recovery rally ran into trouble at the lower end of my minimum long target last week, which led to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears with no decisive winner.

Friday’s close above the key level at 3800 makes the washout below look like a classic bear trap that cleaned out all the stops, only to reverse back above.

Last week’s scenario layout still looks solid and is supported by a vast majority of the data: The current rally should last longer and go further than previous bounces until extreme pessimism normalizes — a classic bear-market rally.

After that we will likely see a decline of several hundred S&P points, even in an optimistic scenario.