Probability Map June 20

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

A detailed look at gaining a significant behavioral advantage during bear markets by using a tactical investment model.

It can save us from the human tendency to make bad investment decisions at the worst of times.

With the S&P trading 17% below the long-term trend and extremely oversold breadth numbers after one of the worst bouts of selling in its history, we are once again close to an intermediate bottom.

The current setup is remarkably similar to the situation in mid-May, when stocks bottomed on monthly OpEx Friday and rallied 10%.

This pattern of a sell-off cascade that is mechanically stopped by a significant options expiration date, because the reflexive, negative feedback-loop of dealer hedging resets, is a powerful edge that remains in this otherwise highly unpredictable market environment.

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